全球自然橡膠產量仍處於增長周期，中國市場中終端橡膠需求的增長率持續下降。天然橡膠市場的供求關係仍然過度供應。
More than half of 2018 has passed, with the natural rubber market first experiencing a one-off fall in the first half of the year and then a long period of low volatility.Since late June, the shanghai-gum 1901 contract has been running for more than three months in a narrow range of 11,545 yuan\/ton to 12875 yuan\/ton.In my opinion, the chances of the shanghai-gum 1901 contract going out of the rally over the接下來的兩個月已經有限，在當前波動範圍內結束合同的可能性很高。
First, from the supply side.By September, China had imported 1.85 million tons of natural rubber, compared with 2.02 million tons in the same period last year.By September, China had imported 3.27 million tons of synthetic rubber, compared with 3.09 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of about 180,000 tons.In terms of total rubber imports, the import supply in the first three quarters of 2018 was slightly higher比2017年。從顯式清單的角度來看，截至10月16日，上海期貨交易所的倉庫數量為57,400噸，去年同期為373,200噸，橡膠庫存的橡膠清單，Qingdao Bonded Warehouse的貼合倉庫是112，{18} {18}} thement和198,9,00 000,900 the stock of rubber in the futures warehouse and bonded warehouse of Shanghai futures exchange, the current level of dominant inventory is still about 57,000 tons higher than last year.In particular, the high price of rubber warehouse receipt in Shanghai futures exchange has a more obvious impact on the futures price, which makes the price of shanghai-gum 1901 lower than the current performance of shanghai-gum 1801年的合同。同一時期的明顯庫存增長略高於同一時期的進口增長，這表明國內自然橡膠市場仍處於盈餘和略微加重狀態。
其次，請看下游需求。在9月底，中國已經生產並出售了2 0。 4.913億輛和204.906億輛汽車，同比增長0.9％和1.5％，增長率下降了1.9個百分點，每年的生產率分別為1.9個百分點的生產率。 6.47億輪胎同比增長1.4％，下降了近4.4個百分點。當橡膠供應的總量保持相對穩定時，下游需求放緩無疑是供應需求關係惡化的另一個重要原因。
In addition, the output of natural rubber in the main producing country is still increasing.According to the latest report data, from January to August 2018, the natural rubber output of Thailand, the main producing country, reached 2.783 million tons, with an increase of about 140,000 tons, and that of Indonesia, the main producing country, reached about 2.598 million tons, with an increase of about 390，000噸。但是，仍然很難改變這一事實，即全球天然橡膠生產的增長相對較大。因此，由於泰國和印度尼西亞的兩個主要天然橡膠主要生產商的國內生產沒有顯著減少，因此全球自然橡膠供應額將很長一段時間。